Nobel Prize in Literature 2021: How are the forecasts going?

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Hit the winner ofl Nobel Prize in Literature It must be one of the most widespread and useless sports in the world. As soon as the month of October knocks on the doors, the planet of the book – in reflex action that deserves a more serious study – takes a look at the probable list of the probable applicants to whom the Swedish Academy would be contemplating hanging the gold medal, delivering the diploma and transfer the million dollars. The whole process, of course, conditional, considering that the Academy is invulnerable to leaks.

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Or, at least it had a reputation for being until the betting houses started carving. Then the opinion of literary critics was, at least, obliterated between game runners, calculations of probabilities and other variables of a market without prose and without verse. At this point in 2010, for example, a small oscillation in the price of Vargas Llosa went from its stationary 45 to 1 to 25 to 1, which allowed the Peruvian to rise to the top 20. At the top, the Kenyan Ngugi wa Thiong’o was trading at 11 pounds for every 4 bet, a step ahead of Cormac McCarthy, who was breathing down the back of his neck.

Planet in suspense

This year, just a few hours after the announcement, there are many calls to succeed the American poet Louis Glück, the last to get on the podium. At the 1XBET house – which is getting ready to broadcast the ceremony live – the leader of the group, by far, is the English comedian, producer, television presenter and writer of crime novel Richard Osman. The author of “The Man Who Died Twice” scores 101 points, well above the first platoon made up of heavyweights such as Milan Kundera, Salman Rushdie, Stephen King, Martin Amis, and William T. Vollmann, who score 51.

A little further back, at 34, are Yu Hua, Marilynne Robinson, Botho Strauss, Linton Kwesi Johnson, Hilary Mantel Friederike Mayrocker and the eternally voiced Cormac McCarthy. The author of the famous “The Road” is followed by other names that are beginning to recur in this contest: Don DeLillo, Yan Lianke, Michel Houellebecq, Ko Un, Gerald Murnane, Charles Simic, Edna O’Brien, Karl Ove Knausgaard and Scholastique Mukasonga. In this meridian we also find the only representative in our language, Javier Marías, whose presence begins to take the place of the Argentine César Aira, insistently voiced in previous years.

Those who pay less would remain, then. Area in which we find the Canadian lyrical Anne Carson, her compatriot and narrator Margaret Atwood, the Russian novelist Lyudmila Ulitskaya and the overseas French Guadeloupean Maryse Condé. There is also the Kenyan novelist Ngũgĩ wa Thiong’o, a portraitist of the perennial tensions between whites and blacks, and the very respectable French novelist Annie Ernaux, who obtains the minimum of 8 points and, according to the experts, is emerging as a serious candidate for obtain the highest medal of the planetary letters.


Mario Vargas Llosa and his emotional thanks to Isabel Preysler. (Video: Instituto Cervantes)
Mario Vargas Llosa and his emotional gratitude to Isabel Preysler during the celebration of the tenth anniversary of obtaining the Nobel Prize for Literature null


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Nobel Prize in Literature 2021: How are the forecasts going?